Russian invasian of Japan's island: Preparing for the worst on the South Kuril Islands

Russia is backing up its rhetoric over the South Kuril Islands with action. In a surprise move that will no doubt further aggravate the long-standing territorial dispute between Russia and Japan, Russia's military-political leadership announced plans to modernize its armed forces in the country's Far East.
The plans to reorganize and bolster defenses at the Russian base on the South Kuril Islands are entirely justified and urgent. Forces there consist entirely of the shorthanded 18th machinegun-artillery division, with just 3,500 troops.
The proximity of the islands to Japan's coast makes them extremely difficult to defend. In theory, Japan could launch a massive sneak attack with considerable landing forces at night using small non-military boats (for instance, fast motorboats used for fishing) as well as inflatable attack motorboats and helicopters. By using such unconventional means, Japan would be able to keep preparations for the operation secret. In this case, the main thrust of the attack would be on Kunashir Island, the southernmost island of the chain. If the Japanese were bold enough, they might simultaneously attack Iturup Island.
Russia would do well to remember Japan's predilection for starting wars with sudden well-planned attacks, a tactic it has used in every war it has ever waged. Japan's proximity to the islands allows it to rapidly deliver cargo and reinforcements to landed troops, while backing them up with massive air support from attack helicopters. The Japanese could keep most of Kunashir under heavy fire using missiles and artillery (including precision weapons) stationed on its own shores.
The Japanese military are well trained and highly motivated. They possess huge quantities of the latest weapons and equipment. They have unique type-96 multi-purpose missiles and HATM-6 systems with hammer-like chassis, which could be delivered to the islands using light transport. These would be equally effective against tanks and artillery. This, combined with Japan's air superiority and wide use of precision weapons, would allow the Japanese to smash the defensive forces on the islands much faster and easier that we might think.
http://en.rian.ru/analysis/20110301/162818449.html